Showing posts with label risk and return. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk and return. Show all posts

Risk is dependent on both the nature of investments and on their market price


The risk of an investment is described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss.

The risk of an investment - the probability of an adverse outcome - is partly inherent in its very nature.

  • A dollar spent on biotechnology is a riskier investment than a dollar used to purchase utility equipment.  
  • The former has both a greater probability of loss and a greater percentage of the investment at stake.

In the financial markets, however, the connection between a marketable security and the underlying business is not as clearcut.

  • For investors in a marketable security the gain and loss associated with the various outcomes is not totally inherent in the underlying business; 
  • it also depends on the price paid, which is established by the marketplace.


Greater risk does not guarantee greater return, risk erodes return by causing losses.


Greater risk does not guarantee greater return.

To the contrary, risk erodes return by causing losses.

It is only when investors shun high-risk investments, thereby depressing their prices, that an incremental return can be earned which more than fully compensates for the risk incurred.

By itself risk does not create incremental return, only price can accomplish that.

Risk and Return - Find Investments offering High Returns with Low Risk

A positive correlation between risk and return would hold consistently only in an efficient market.  Any disparities would be immediately corrected, this is what would make the market efficient.

In inefficient markets it is possible to find investments offering high returns with low risk.  These arise 
  • when information is not widely available, 
  • when an investment is particularly complicated to analyze, or 
  • when investors buy and sell for reasons unrelated to value.  
It is also common place to discover high-risk investments offering low returns.  Overpriced and therefore risky investments are often available
  • because the financial markets are biased toward overvaluation and 
  • because it is difficult for market forces to correct an overvalued condition if enough speculators persist in overpaying.  
  • Also, unscrupulous operators will always make overpriced investments available to anyone willing to buy, they are not legally required to sell at a fair price.
Since the financial markets are inefficient a good deal of the time, investors cannot simply select a level of risk and be confident that it will be reflected in the accompanying returns.  Risk and return must instead be assessed independently for every investment.  

In point of fact, greater risk does not guarantee greater return.  To the contrary, risk erodes return by causing losses.

It is only when investors shun high-risk investments, thereby depressing their prices, that an incremental return can be earned which more than fully compensates for the risk incurred.

By itself risk does not create incremental return; only price can accomplish that.