Buffett: In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Now, low prices became my friend.

Buffett highlights the irrational reaction of many investors to changes in stock prices.


Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%.  Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us.  Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?

I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.

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The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter:

• Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. 
• These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.

Charlie and I don’t expect to win many of you over to our way of thinking – we’ve observed enough human behavior to know the futility of that – but we do want you to be aware of our personal calculus. And here
a confession is in order: In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life.

In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million,  I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday. 

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When Berkshire buys stock in a company that is repurchasing shares, we hope for two events:

• First, we have the normal hope that earnings of the business will increase at a good clip for a long time to come; and 
• second, we also hope that the stock underperforms in the market for a long time as well. A corollary to this second point: “Talking our book” about a stock we own – were that to be effective – would actually be harmful to Berkshire, not helpful as commentators customarily assume.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

Share Buybacks: Mixed Emotions evoked when Berkshire shares sell well below Intrinsic Value

Share Repurchases


Last September, we announced that Berkshire would repurchase its shares at a price of up to 110% of book value. We were in the market for only a few days – buying $67 million of stock – before the price advanced beyond our limit. Nonetheless, the general importance of share repurchases suggests I should focus for a bit on the subject.

Charlie and I favor repurchases when two conditions are met: 

• first, a company has ample funds to take care of the operational and liquidity needs of its business; 
• second, its stock is selling at a material discount to the company’s intrinsic business value, conservatively calculated. 

We have witnessed many bouts of repurchasing that failed our second test. Sometimes, of course, infractions – even serious ones – are innocent; many CEOs never stop believing their stock is cheap. In other instances, a less benign conclusion seems warranted.

• It doesn’t suffice to say that repurchases are being made to offset the dilution from stock issuances or simply because a company has excess cash. 
• Continuing shareholders are hurt unless shares are purchased below intrinsic value. 

The first law of capital allocation – whether the money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases – is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another. (One CEO who always stresses the price/value factor in repurchase decisions is Jamie Dimon at J.P. Morgan; I recommend that you read his annual letter.)

Charlie and I have mixed emotions when Berkshire shares sell well below intrinsic value. We like making money for continuing shareholders, and there is no surer way to do that than by buying an asset – our
own stock – that we know to be worth at least x for less than that – for .9x, .8x or even lower. (As one of our directors says, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel, after the barrel has been drained and the fish have quit flopping.)

Nevertheless, we don’t enjoy cashing out partners at a discount, even though our doing so may give the selling shareholders a slightly higher price than they would receive if our bid was absent. 

• When we are buying, therefore, we want those exiting partners to be fully informed about the value of the assets they are selling. 
• At our limit price of 110% of book value, repurchases clearly increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value. 
• And the more and the cheaper we buy, the greater the gain for continuing shareholders. 

Therefore, if given the opportunity, we will likely repurchase stock aggressively at our price limit or lower.

You should know, however, that

• we have no interest in supporting the stock and that our bids will fade in particularly weak markets.
• Nor will we buy shares if our cash-equivalent holdings are below $20 billion. At Berkshire, financial strength that is unquestionable takes precedence over all else.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

When a company should buy back shares

So, according to Warren Buffett, a company can add value to its shares by buying some of them back:

1. where it has surplus funds;
2. where it can buy them back at a price below intrinsic value.

Warren Buffett has said on several occasions, in relation to Berkshire Hathaway, that the company will never buy back shares merely to bolster the share price or to stop a fall in the price.

Warren Buffett on Share Buybacks

BUYING BACK SHARES FOR THE RIGHT REASONS

Warren Buffett likes companies that buy back their shares if they do so for the right reasons, and if they pay less than the intrinsic value of the share. . A share buy back that is designed simply to inflate or support the value of the shares is not a good reason.

WARREN BUFFETT ON BUYBACKS

In 1999, Warren Buffett said this:

‘Now, repurchases are all the rage, but are all too often made for an unstated and, in our view, ignoble reason, to pump up or support the stock price. The shareholder who chooses to sell today, of course, is benefited by any buyer, whatever his origin or motives. But the continuing shareholder is penalised by repurchases above intrinsic value. Buying dollar bills for $1.10 is not good business for those who stick around.’

Share Buy-Back

BUYING BACK SHARES

Sometimes a company has surplus funds that it does not need for its operations. It can use those funds to expand its operations (eg buy new businesses) or it can distribute them to stockholders. One way of distributing funds to shareholders is to have a share buy back, wherein the company buys back some of its shares from existing stockholders.

EXAMPLE OF A SHARE BUY-BACK

Company A has 100 shares issued and makes a profit of $50. This means a shareholder is getting a return of 50 cents a share ($50/100). This is the Earnings per Share or EPS. If the share sells on the stock exchange for 15 times its EPS, a share has a value of $7.50.

Suppose that the company buy back 25 shares. A shareholder who retains their shares now earns 67 cents ($50/75) on each share held. If the share sells on the stock exchange for 15 times its EPS, a share has a value of $10.